Discount Rate announcement and karachi stock exchange

The government will announce the monetary policy by mid may. everyone was expecting the discount rate to fall by 100 basis points to 9% from current 10% but the inflation numbers really ruined the party. The inflation figures for may stood at 9.18% from 8.53% in april which means that investors at karachi stock exchange will expect no change or only 50 basis points decrease in the discount rate. the sentiments in the market have reduced sharply and since friday the market has lost around 536 points.

Politically, Imran khan is staging a protest on 11th may to mark the one year of elections as rigged, along with IK, tahir ul qadri is also supporting his stance which means the capital of Islamabad is hoping for a big day.

Both of these events are very important which will further guide the market. right now i am fully invested in the market because after a short correction, i was expecting the inflation numbers to be somewhere between 8.23% to 8.75% due to which i bought when the market took correction from the high of 29458.15 but right now the kse 100 index is at 28383.20 and a major support of 28500 has been broken. the next support stands around 28000 which would be very crucial level.


current portfolio

i bought luck and pnsc in previous rallies and sold almost all of my holdings of lucky cement but have not sold pnsc yet. bought gadoon textiles on the announcement of government to impose 5% duty on yarn imports and this stock will benefit from it in coming months. 

i bought hum network after it became x. the stock has recently started to move due to good results and will try to sell it in chunks above 100. bought century papers before its results, was expecting good results from them but they did disappointed but can hope it will move somewhere after budget. 

engro fertilizer has a great potential, it is going down due to market correction, otherwise the result was good. i bought pso in previous rally at 325 and sold it had 420 after its phenomenal march results, went all the way to 456.99. bought it again  because it was good to buy after losing more than 50 rupees but the recent circular debt crises have put it in spot light and the management of the company has asked help from government to help it clear the bills which it has to pay to its international suppliers. . 

last year, i made a heavy loss in efoods. it was around 70, i bought it at 72 and sold it around 75 but then it skyrocketed to all time high of 160 i think. sometimes as a human, its really hard to control your emotions so i got greedy and jumped into at 154. well it fell badly and sold all my holdings around 120. at that time, its results were very bad due to distribution issues. i have again bought it because its march results were ok and i expect the ramadan effect will definitely boost its profits.

 i bought avn and tgl before results and oh well the results of both these companies were terrible and having continuous lower locks. i have no idea whether to sell them or wait. bought general tyres on someone advise and recent pakistani rupee appreciation means more people buying cars and it will have positive effect on it during its june results. 

bought akzo, pkgs, and mureb in small chunks. all three companies have the potential to produce good results during june.