Murree Brewery Chart on 21th may 2014

Portfolio on 20th May 2014

Sector	Share	Pf %
Construction & Material	Luck	0.70%
Indus transportation	Pnsc	3.52%
Personal goods	Gadt	2.11%
General Industries	Cppl	3.52%
Forestry	Cepb	21.13%
Chemicals	Efert	3.52%
Oil & Gas	Pso	3.52%
Foods Producers	Efoods	3.52%
Automobile & Parts	Gtyr	3.52%
Household Goods	Tgl	3.52%
Technology Hardware	Avn	3.52%
Beverages	Mureb	0.70%
Pharma & Biotech	Iblhl	3.52%
Electricity	Kel	38.73%
Construction & Material	Akzo	1.41%
Personal goods	Nml	3.52%

Sold hum networks on 30.8% gains and 50% of mureb on 32.60% gains. 

Foreign Investment & Portfolio

The first day of the week has been very dull with low volumes. The Imran Khan saga finally finished in Islamabad where he protested against the rigging in the elections and further said that he would continue to protest in different cities until and unless his demands are met. this has created a kind of political bubble in the making where the incumbent government need to resolve the issue as soon as they can.

This week the monetary policy will be announced as well, other reason for low volumes. whether the government maintains the status quo or cuts the rate by 50 or 100 basis points will be closely watched by the investors and decide the future on how locals invest in the market but at the same time the foreigners individuals and institutions are buying at every opportunity. the figures below represents the net buying and selling of foreigners since the start of 2014 and movement of kse 100 during those months.

	fipi	kse 100
Jan-14	31,790,699	1288			rates in $
Feb-14	9,522,581	-1108
Mar-14	-5,202,632	1133
Apr-14	91,863,206	1244
till 12th may	22,245,528	577.25

Positive news from IMF and other organizations is helping KSE to attract foreign investment but the question would be whether they would continue to invest in Pakistan since a lot of other markets at the moment are offering quite good returns. 

sold pkgs on 10% gain, was going to buy treet corp in the range of 106-110 but it got upper capped, will wait for it to come down to buy in that range. bought IBL Healthcare, a subsidiary of searle company. Cherat packaging looks interesting and will buy it on wednesday by selling Hum network shares on last day of its spot. 

Treet Corporation & Berger Paints

I have been looking at some stock recently to add them into the portfolio. One of them is treet corporation. last year in August it made a high of 294.87 from 69 in june but then it ended up in the range of 100-130, right now the price is ranging between 100-110. looking at the results, the march results shows that the company has been doing good business. the sales growth of the company stands at 21.39% which is good. hoping to buy it the range of 100-106. It is also a good alternative to its more expensive competitor Gillette Pakistan.

Another company that i have been looking at is berger paints. Alot of investors are showing interest in this company because during summers, the paints business kicks off to a good start and people are optimistic about its june results, expect it to be good but looking at its chart and previous eps, the company has so far failed to bring that charm. The price is currently moving between 50-56 but recently broke the support of 50 and is at 49-50 range now. i am interested in buying this script between 40-45 because then a lot of people who have bought this stock between 50-60 will sideline and it would be good to buy at bottom.

I will selling pkgs on 10% gain and buy treet corporation while will wait for berger to come down to 40-45 range and buy that.

treet 3rd quarter statement
http://www.treetonline.com/Reports/2013-2014/Final_March_2014.pdf

berger 3rd quarter statement
http://berger.com.pk/aboutcompany/annualreport/2014/Berger-3Q-Mar-14.pdf

Jim Rogers: 'If artificial ocean of liquidity starts drying up, we're al...

one of the greatest investors of all time. really informative and every investor should watch this interview.

Discount Rate announcement and karachi stock exchange

The government will announce the monetary policy by mid may. everyone was expecting the discount rate to fall by 100 basis points to 9% from current 10% but the inflation numbers really ruined the party. The inflation figures for may stood at 9.18% from 8.53% in april which means that investors at karachi stock exchange will expect no change or only 50 basis points decrease in the discount rate. the sentiments in the market have reduced sharply and since friday the market has lost around 536 points.

Politically, Imran khan is staging a protest on 11th may to mark the one year of elections as rigged, along with IK, tahir ul qadri is also supporting his stance which means the capital of Islamabad is hoping for a big day.

Both of these events are very important which will further guide the market. right now i am fully invested in the market because after a short correction, i was expecting the inflation numbers to be somewhere between 8.23% to 8.75% due to which i bought when the market took correction from the high of 29458.15 but right now the kse 100 index is at 28383.20 and a major support of 28500 has been broken. the next support stands around 28000 which would be very crucial level.


current portfolio

i bought luck and pnsc in previous rallies and sold almost all of my holdings of lucky cement but have not sold pnsc yet. bought gadoon textiles on the announcement of government to impose 5% duty on yarn imports and this stock will benefit from it in coming months. 

i bought hum network after it became x. the stock has recently started to move due to good results and will try to sell it in chunks above 100. bought century papers before its results, was expecting good results from them but they did disappointed but can hope it will move somewhere after budget. 

engro fertilizer has a great potential, it is going down due to market correction, otherwise the result was good. i bought pso in previous rally at 325 and sold it had 420 after its phenomenal march results, went all the way to 456.99. bought it again  because it was good to buy after losing more than 50 rupees but the recent circular debt crises have put it in spot light and the management of the company has asked help from government to help it clear the bills which it has to pay to its international suppliers. . 

last year, i made a heavy loss in efoods. it was around 70, i bought it at 72 and sold it around 75 but then it skyrocketed to all time high of 160 i think. sometimes as a human, its really hard to control your emotions so i got greedy and jumped into at 154. well it fell badly and sold all my holdings around 120. at that time, its results were very bad due to distribution issues. i have again bought it because its march results were ok and i expect the ramadan effect will definitely boost its profits.

 i bought avn and tgl before results and oh well the results of both these companies were terrible and having continuous lower locks. i have no idea whether to sell them or wait. bought general tyres on someone advise and recent pakistani rupee appreciation means more people buying cars and it will have positive effect on it during its june results. 

bought akzo, pkgs, and mureb in small chunks. all three companies have the potential to produce good results during june.